Will Muslims Catapult Democrats to Victory?
By J. Carlos Jiacinto, Nov 3, 2002
Muslims mainly voted Republican in 2000 because they have viewed the Democrats as the "party of welfare" and "loose morality." They supported Bush due to their resentment of "welfare," "taxes," and "social programs."
However, many Muslims admitted to me that their vote for Bush was a "big mistake." I doubt that they will vote Republican for a while. Post 9/11, Muslims realized that many individuals in the GOP share the same contempt for them that Republicans exhibit toward other minority groups, such as Blacks and Hispanics.
Muslims receive and resent derision from too many GOP leaders, and may well catapult Democrats to victory on Tuesday.
An article in the Christian Science Monitor explains, "A new study finds [Muslims are] wealthy, educated, growing fast. But old suspicion from 9/11 complicates their plight."
The same policies Bush is using to solidify his base and control the national dialogue undermine his support in a little-appreciated demographic. As the CSM reports:
"The aftermath of Sept. 11 and tension with Iraq has exposed a dual response to Muslims living here. There's both suspicion and outreach -- discrimination and efforts to bridge the religious divide."
Muslims represent a key, growing voting bloc.
"While no one knows how many Muslims live in the US -- estimates span 1.2 million to 10 million -- their numbers are growing fast. Between 1990 and 2000, the Muslim-origin population grew 40 percent, according to the new study by the Lewis Mumford Center for Comparative Urban and Regional Research at New York's University at Albany. And they're more integrated than larger minorities."
Their geographic concentration focuses Muslim voting power. "Four metropolitan regions -- Los Angeles, New York, Detroit, and Washington -- boast more than 100,000 American Muslims. A decade earlier, only Los Angeles could make that claim. Detroit's population includes more Muslims than virtually any city. But much smaller Jersey City, NJ, which saw a doubling of its Muslim population in the 1990s, now boasts the identical concentration: 2.8 percent."
Still, Muslim voters don't register on the pundits' radar screens. "Socioeconomic factors also make Muslims largely invisible here. They typically live in neighborhoods that are only 4.5 percent Muslim, according to the Mumford study, although that's changing as their numbers grow and they begin to create enclaves. Still, American Muslims are far less geographically segregated than Hispanics or African Americans."
Muslims enjoy "higher socioeconomic status" than other minority groups.
"On average, Muslims live in households earning $50,000 annually -- more than any significant minority except Asian, and only $2,000 less than non-Hispanic whi 1000 te households, according to Mumford data. American Muslims have lower poverty rates than either blacks or Hispanics, and more years of education than any of these groups, including whites and Asians."
See "America's elusive minority: Muslims," Laurent Belsie, The Christian Science Monitor: October 7, 2002: http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/1007/p02s01-ussc.html
The Arab American Institute's 2002 scorecard rates politicians' voting records:
Arkansas: Hutchinson voted against the AAI on most of their issues.
Colorado: Same horrible scores for Allard.
In Georgia, Cleland has a bad score, but ironically Miller gets a higher rating.
Missouri: Carnahan votes more negative than not.
South Dakota: Johnson has voted more negative than positive.
Bob Ehrlich of MD voted against all of AAI's positions in the bills brought before Congress. This is important concerning Maryland's Governor's race.
See: http://www.aaiusa.org/PDF/scorecard02.pdf
AAI has other important information:
There are 3 million Arab Americans who live in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. About one of every three Arab Americans lives in one of the nation's six largest metropolitan areas. About 90 percent live in urban areas.
66 percent of Arab Americans live in 10 states. 33 percent live in California, Michigan and New York. 48 percent live in 20 metro areas.
The cities with the largest Arab American populations are: Los Angeles, Detroit, New York, Chicago and Washington, DC respectively.
See: http://www.aaiusa.org/demographics.htm
Leading Republicans Express Anti-Arab and Anti-Muslim Bigotry
Recently, the pro-Republican Islamic/Arab interest The Criterion reported Republican bigotry:
"In the past two months Cal Thomas has written that Islam is 'an oppressive religion' and that Muslims 'take their faith in a false god more seriously than we take our faith in the true one. And in the Washington Times, Thomas mocks Muslim prayers offered at an event marking the fast of Ramadan held at the White House."
The Criterion quotes Thomas: "The ambassadors knelt and touched their foreheads to the floor of the East Reception Room. It's unlikely they were praying Lee Greenwood's lyrics for 'God Bless the USA.'" He also criticized Congress for having a Muslim leader offer an opening prayer and suggested Muslim students should not be allowed to pray in schools."
The Criterion quotes New York Post columnist Rod Dreher: "The nation cannot afford the naive illusions that have given many Americans comfort in peacetime. Chief among them is the notion, repeated ad nauseam by our leaders and the media, that Islam is a religion of peace. This may not be an outright lie, but it is so far from the full truth as to approach falsehood." (National Review Online, 11/8/2001)
The Criterion quotes Worldnetdaily.com Washington Bureau Chief Paul Sperry suggesting that US "'air-lift pigs' into Afghan mosques." (9/27/2001)
The Criterion quotes Republican spokesperson Ann Coulter: "[America] should invade [Muslim] countries, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity." And says "Coulter also called for the 'mass deportation of Muslims.'"
The Criterion says "Rush Limbaugh is on the air everyday talking about how Islam itself preaches violence and intolerance. [Republican Georgia Senate nominee Saxby] Chambliss called for the immediate arrest of eve 1000 ry Muslim coming across the border. Cal Thomas continues to suggest that Muslims need to be fought with vigor. General Hackworth asserts that this is a war against Islam." All these Republicans freely express hatred and intolerance aimed at Arabs and Muslims.
Rush Limbaugh is the leading voice of the right, and The Criterion quotes Limbaugh as claiming the president of the United States says "Islam is a religion of peace" merely to appease Muslims and quell uprising. "He has to say that," said Limbaugh.
The Criterion identifies "Daniel Pipes, the self-appointed terrorism expert, who was recently humiliated by Alec Baldwin and Bill Maher on Politically Incorrect, continues to say that the majority of Muslims in the US are planning to destroy America."
The Criterion observes: "If the election of 2000 taught us anything, it taught us that the country is divided straight down the middle. Sure, the GOP may have lost the confidence of the aforementioned groups. But one group did vote for the GOP. They voted in numbers. They voted en masse. They are over 7 million strong."
Noting, "The majority of Muslims -- over 87% -- voted for then-Governor of Texas George W. Bush. Many of them, about 35%, voted for the first time in the 2000 election. Almost all of them, 87-95% voted for Bush based on what their leadership recommended. Over 70,000 in Florida alone voted for Bush." The Criterion expresses shock and dismay at this self-defeating Republican bigotry against Muslims.
There's a real danger to Republican political prospects here, as The Criterion reports: "When polled, based on the recently released Zogby International results (12/19/2001), most Muslims in the United States described themselves as 'Democrats.' Over 40% said they were Democrats, 28% said they were independent, and only 23% said they were Republicans."
Even though most Muslims identify as Democrats, the majority of Muslims say they voted for Bush. The Criterion asks, "So how can we take advantage of a group of Democrats that votes Republican? As Republicans, we have to answer this question and figure out how to replicate it. Over and over and over again." But the RNC and individual Republicans are not doing this. They're showing rude disdain for erstwhile allies -- Arab Americans and Muslims.
See: "Is the GOP shooting itself in the foot?" Mohammed S. Alo, The Criterion, November 03, 2002: http://www.toledomuslims.com/Criterion/Article.asp?offset=60&ID=98
One thing is for sure, Muslims are not party loyalists. The majority of Muslims polled who voted in the 2000 and 1996 election said they voted for Clinton in 1996 and Bush in 2000 based on recommendations of their leadership. So they are not loyal to one party over the other. Zogby has just proven that once again. They are the ultimate swing voters. The Bush administration knows this and Karl Rove took quick advantage of this in the 2000 election.
Robertson, Coulter, Noonan, and other conservatives fail to realize their racism and intolerance only hurts their cause. Surveys taken after the 2000 presidential election reveal that Muslims voted overwhelmingly for Bush over Gore. See: J Carlos Jiacinto, http://www.democraticunderground.com/articles/02/03/13_target.html
Anti-Arab and Anti-Muslim hate crimes are on the rise, but Republicans refuse to do anything about it. "A 60-page report released by the Washington-based Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) details more than 280 incidents and experiences of anti-Muslim stereotyping, bias, harassment and violence."
"The Council, which was established in 1994, says that although there was a 60 percent increase in discrimin 1000 ation cases, there was an overall decrease in acts of violence against American Muslims. The drop is attributed to the absence of such events as the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 or the downing of TWA flight 800 in 1996 -- both of which triggered anti-Muslim violence in the United States." But the bigotry against Muslims is on the rise again.
Nations, politicians and parties ignore or insult Muslims at their own risk: "Currently, the total US population of 270 million includes six million Muslims. Islam, which has about 1.2 billion adherents worldwide, is one of the fastest growing religions both in the United States and in other regions of the world."
In America, Muslim votes can swing elections in more than a dozen important states. "Eighty percent of the incidents in the United States took place in 15 states where the Muslim population is concentrated: California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, Michigan, Ohio, District of Columbia, North Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, Texas and Georgia."
See: RIGHTS: Discrimination Against Muslims Increases in U.S. Thalif Deen, United Nations, July 16, 1998: http://www.oneworld.org/ips2/jul98/04_05_003.html
More Data:
9,563 Muslims live in Maryland.
See: http://www.jannah.org/popstatistics/usamuslims.html
In 1994, data showed "The ten states with the most concentrated Muslim Population are: California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Indiana, Michigan, Virginia, Texas, Ohio, and Maryland (listed in order of population). This represents 3.3 million of the American Muslim population." (See: Islam In America. Echo of Islam; International Social & Political Journal, Dec. 1994: http://www.netiran.com/Htdocs/Clippings/Social/941200XXSO06.html)
In Florida: "about 91 percent of Muslims...cast ballots for Bush as part of an alliance-endorsed voting bloc, said chapter Chairman Tahir Ali, of Westborough" (See: "US Muslims Might have elected Bush" The Middle East Times: http://www.metimes.com).
In political views most Muslims remain moderate to conservative. In terms of party affiliation 40% of Muslims register Democratic, 23% are Republican, and 28% are independent (See: "Narrative Summary" http://www.projectmaps.com/PMReport.htm).
Muslims' electoral participation is extremely high: "85% are likely to vote" ("Narrative Summary" http://www.projectmaps.com/PMReport.htm).
Among Arabs a solid majority voted for Bush. According to the Project Maps survey, "the majority (54%) of Arabs voted...for Bush" ("Narrative Summary" http://www.projectmaps.com/PMReport.htm).
Bush owes a significant part of his "victory" in 2000 to Muslim Americans' support. Clearly the approach advocated by Coulter and her colleagues hurts his case for the 2002 and 2004 elections.
It is obvious that the Republican Party has lost much of its Muslim support. Now these statistics are very interesting for all Democrats. In many key races the Muslim vote may very well put Democrats across the finish-line. Notice that Texas and North Carolina have large Muslim populations.
I have Muslim friends in MD. All of them, except one, said that they will vote for Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Two of them already did so. Montgomery County, Maryland has a lot of Muslims. It is obvious that Bob Ehrlich's poor record on Muslim issues will hurt him there. Quite possibly it could be the hidden undercurrent in the MD Governor's race.
Black and Hispanic Voters Are Important, But So Are Muslim Voters.
Muslims voted overwhelmingly for Bush in 2000. However, they seem more likely to go Democratic this cycle. If KKT wins e4a Muslims and Arabs, those ethnic groups could carry her to victory. In the North Carolina and Texas Senate races, Erskine Bowles and Ron Kirk could owe their victories to Muslims and Arab Americans.
Muslims tend to be educated and well off. They voted Republican because many run small businesses, work as doctors, etc. In the past they have viewed the Democrats as the "party of welfare" and "loose morality." They voted Republican in due part due to their resentment of "welfare," "taxes," and "social programs."
However, post 9/11 many Muslims in MD have admitted to me that their vote for Bush was a "big mistake." I doubt that they will vote Republican for a while. Muslims may well catapult Democrats to victory on Tuesday.
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