A Democratic Wind Called High Turnout
By Mike Hersh, Nov 3, 2002

It may be tough, but Democrats are working harder and we're going to win. Higher turnout means wins for Democrats, and I see all indications that wind is blowing Democrats to victory.

I worked with the Democratic congressional candidate here, Chris Van Hollen at the subway stop handing out literature. That's what they call it, though it's hardly Tolstoy. That was the first time I'd met him. He's very smart, friendly and modest. Even so, I think he'll win against Connie Morella, an 8 term Republican here in Maryland.

Morella thinks so too. She's desperately trying to buy back a seat she's won without even mentioning an opponent in the past. For the first time, she's running dishonest smear campaign ads and embracing right wingers and their money.

When we got back from the subway stop, we went out to put up lawn signs for the Van Hollen and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (governor) campaigns. Then I published several articles at this site. I keep putting up articles at here, and reading great articles at other sites. The optimism is powerful and well founded.

I feel a Democratic wind coming called higher than expected turnout. Unions are pumping their resources into GOTV -- get out the vote -- and that has Republicans running scared. TV ads are less important because people are clicking or muting them by remote control. The GOP is resting its hopes heavily on TV and direct mail, which people usually throw out.

Working the county fair, sitting at tables, working at the Maryland primary and going door-to-door in Connie Morella's district, I found most people are planning to vote straight Democratic. This is a mostly Democratic, but fiercely independent district. Despite huge money and name advantages, Morella is in the race of her life, and she knows it. I watched the faces of voters light up when they met Van Hollen at the metro stop. That's the Democratic wind blowing.

I see a stronger than anticipated minority turnout threatening the GOPs here in the North, and even in some southern states thought safe for Republicans. Many voters here are Latino -- proud new citizens. Forget the claptrap that Republicans wooed Latino voters with empty promises. I've spoken with these neighbors of mine, and they know the importance of voting wisely. They're strongly and proudly Democratic -- and they're motivated voters.

African American voters see and vote their interests clearly. President Clinton and Democrats are still fighting for them -- and all regular Americans. Like all regular Americans, Latinos, African Americans and working people will turn out in tremendous numbers. Democrats of all colors are fired up to win elections. If these trends hold across the country, the GOPs are in huge trouble. It's all about the turnout, and the Democrats are better focused and better able to turn out the voters.

I see newcomer Bill McBride taking the Florida Governor's race, unless lil brother Jeb cheats at least as well as he did last time. Democrats will win in several other places. PA is a no brainer. Rendell is a winner, as Democrats run well in Great Lakes State Houses -- Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois. +10 seems a safe bet, so I'll push it and say +12 Governorships for Democrats.

I see Senate pick ups in Colorado, New Hampshire, and maybe North Carolina and Texas. Net pick up of 3 for Democrats in the Senate. I think Democrats may get the seats they need to retake the House. Call it +7 net gain for Democrats.

A possible monkey-wrench is Green kamikaze candidates (and Republican plants in Green clothing). Naderites hope to hamstring candidates like Sen. Carnahan in Missouri, Massachusetts Governor candidate Shannon O'Brien, Minnesota's Walter Mondale, and others in key races. If people fall for that crap, Republicans may yet celebrate.

With the stakes so high this year, I don't think people are that foolish. I feel a huge -- deep and wide -- Democratic wind this year. But only if we all do our part. Get out there. Talk up this election to everyone who might lean Democratic. Vote, and bring five friends to the polls.

Keep positive and help the Democratic wind turn into a hurricane. I am even more optimistic than I can say. Unless there are massive dirty tricks to block and steal votes, Democrats will win huge. Even if the Republicans cheat again, we will still make a proud showing. Run to the polls with a smile on your face. Help us free our nation from the Bush Occupation.

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