Less than 20 months before Election Day 2004, the mass media cheerleaders tell us AWOL Bush is riding high. Fresh from proving peace and inspections advocates were correct -- that Saddam Hussein posed no threat to Americans -- Bush is riding a wave of faux patriotism and war pride. But that wave shows weakness polls reveal.

In an Associated Press article headlined "Bush Approval Rating Rises After War," Will Lester of The Associated Press reports, "President Bush's job approval has risen past 70 percent after the war with Iraq but remains far below his father's level after the Persian Gulf War."

"Bush's approval rating was at 72 percent in a poll released Friday by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. His father's rating rose to 89 percent after the first Gulf War in 1991," Lester reports dismissing Bush’s lower approval as "partisan differences."

These findings actually reflect Bush’s tendency to polarize people rather than unite Americans. We know this, because Bush’s "job approval by independents is lower this time around, 68 percent compared with 83 percent who approved of the father in 1991," according to the AP article.

Bush’s "approval" is illusory, because "popularity" does not translate into votes. Bush’s father enjoyed higher ratings in 1991 but lost badly to President Clinton in the 1992 election. Lester explains, "Just under half in the poll, 48 percent, said they would like to see Bush re-elected president in 2004." Of course Bush wasn’t even elected in 2000. He was selected by his father’s friends on the Supreme Court. Will the 2004 race remain close enough for the right wing Republicans to steal again?

It gets even worse for Bush. While "Democratic presidential candidates are struggling to get the public's attention in a time of war," Lester reports the polls show Bush remains no more popular today than he was when he lost the popular vote to Al Gore by more than 500,000 votes on Election Day 2000. This dismal showing – even at the peak of war-driven glory – underscores Bush’s weakness.

"Only a third of the poll respondents could offer a name when asked who is running for the Democratic nomination in 2004," according to the poll released by the Pew research company, "Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman were the best-known of the candidates, with about one in 10 people familiar with each of them, while others lagged behind."

Bush’s name recognition is about ten times that of any Democratic candidate, but even with this enormous advantage, Bush had no lead over an unnamed Democrat before the war. AWOL Bush’s war bounce is much smaller than his father’s. Bush I actually won his election, but even so the elder Bush lost badly a few years later.

The eventual Democratic nominee will gain roughly equal name recognition, and gain on Bush as this advantage and war-glory evaporate. These factors indicate AWOL Bush is in big trouble even before voters focus on the messy aftermath in Iraq and the moribund economy.

Since Bush’s policies took effect, millions of Americans lost their jobs. Even many Republicans in Congress reject Bush’s failed "one trick" approach to growth, and tax cuts for the rich never help the economy. In an ironic reminder of his days as a cheerleader, Bush’s prospects grow dimmer, even as the mass media shake their pompoms for him.

See: http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20030418_1302.html