2002 Elections
November 5, Americans go to the polls. Carlos Jacinto explains what we can watch for on Election Day and Night to get a sense of the likely outcome. We should watch early morning turnout, and step up efforts if it seems low by midday.
We can pull out close races with a late afternoon push, making calls to tired working people and getting out the vote among the less motivated. After the polls close, specific key races will offer a contour for the overall outcome.
Early Morning
This is time to look at polling places. If the polls are filled with people as they go to work it means that turnout is high. This is something that needs to be watched.
Midday
Listen to the news reports and see how people are voting. IF turnout is slow those of you volunteering on the key campaigns need to step it up. Watch these indications--they are early signs of how the night will go.
Late Afternoon
This is the key time to make any final pushes and adjustments. By now turnout will be easy to assess. This will give us the final pre-election insights.
With the House and Senate in play, our future hangs in the balance as you can see from the following analysis. As you read about these key races, consider how you can help get out the vote so Democrats win the House and Senate.
What to Watch As Polls Close (all times EST)
6PM The polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, the first two states to report. Mitch McConnell will be declared the winner in the Senate race. The longer his race remains "undecided," the more likely Democrats will have a good night.
If Ann Northrup loses her seat this will be a good sign for Democrats, and may hint at an unanticipated surge. Conversely, the networks may declare Julia Carson the loser. If she and Jill Long lose, it may signal Republicans will have a good night. Should Hostettler have problems in the "Bloody 8th" Democrats can expect a strong national showing.
7PM The polls close in Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia.
If Jeb Bush is declared the winner immediately in Florida it will be a setback for Democrats. Should the race stay "undecided" or "too close to call" Democrats can hope for wins here and in other close races.
If McBride is declared the winner, then it is off to the races for Democrats. I am willing to bet that the networks delay calling this race until 8 or 9 PM at the earliest.
Georgia: Governor Barnes will be declared the winner at 7 PM immediately. The Chambliss-Cleland race may be "too close to call," but if the networks declare Cleland the winner, it will mean Republican tactics tarring Democrats as "unpatriotic" failed here and may fail elsewhere.
New Hampshire: Republican millionaire Benson will beat Democrat Fernald in the Governor's race. Democrat Shaheen and Republican Sununu's race probably will remain too close to call. Again, if either gets an early win, that would bode well for their party.
The 1st and 2nd Congressional district races will be too close to call. A sweep by Democrats in this Republican bastion could signal a strong Democratic tide across the country.
South Carolina: If Republicans Graham and Sanford win big, it might be the time for Democrats to hit the antacids. However, I think that the Governor's race won't be called immediately. And the Senate race will, as much as I don't want it, go to Graham. The longer these races stay uncalled, the better it looks for Democrats.
Vermont: The Democrat Lt. Gov. Doug Racine will get the most votes in the four-way race for Governor. Even so, unless he wins 50%, the legislature will elect the Governor. The Republicans who are expected to control the process will probably pick their partisan Jim Douglas.
Virginia: Nothing really competitive except the sales tax referendum. If the Republican beats Moran for Congress, Democrats' hopes to take the House fade somewhat.
North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia headline the closings at 7:30 PM. In N. Carolina, the Senate race may be too close to call, or else Republican Liddy Dole will be declared the winner. I doubt that they will call it for Bowles who has the momentum after closing a 48 point gap.
If the race stays too close to call for any length of time, it will be good for Democrats. If Bowles upsets Dole, Democrats will probably keep the Senate and even pick up seats.
In Ohio, the Governor's race could be an indicator. If Republican Taft is not declared the winner immediately then Democrat Hagan might have a chance. Should Hagan win this race it will be a good indicator of an unexpected Democratic tidal wave.
West Virginia: Rockefeller will be declared the winner. The race here to watch is Republican Shelly Moore Capito versus Democrat Jim Humphreys for Congress. Venerable Senator Robert Byrd endorsed his fellow Democrat. We'll see if Byrd's popularity transfers to Humphreys.
8:00 PM ushers the next round of poll closings. This is a big hour. Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Alabama, Illinois, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas begin reporting.
Connecticut: Rowland is highly favored to win the Governor's race. If his challenger Curry wins, the Republicans are in real trouble, The House race to watch pits Republican Nancy Johnson against Democrat Jim Maloney.
Delaware & DC lack competitive races. After a rocky primary effort, DC mayor Anthony Williams is poised to win reelection. In Delaware, Democratic fixture Sen. Joe Biden is running strongly.
Maine: Democrat Pingree will probably lose to Republican Collins, but if there is an upset here, Democrats will almost certainly keep their Senate majority. Democrat Baldacci will probably win the Governorship, despite a stalking horse Green candidate on the ballot.
Maryland: If this is a true GOP night, right winger Ehrlich will be declared the early winner in the Governor's race over Kathleen Kennedy Townsend -- one of several Democratic women who could win a state house this year. It will probably be too close to call at first; and if so, KKT will have a chance.
Watch returns from Baltimore City, and Suburban DC areas -- Montgomery and Prince George's Counties. If Townsend wins big there, she can overcome Ehrlich's strength elsewhere. Her supporters' GOTV (get out the vote) efforts will determine who wins. Her challenger has tried to obscure his extreme right wing views. If he wins, that bodes well for "stealth" Republicans trying to trick voters.
In the 8th District, Chris Van Hollen could beat incumbent Congresswoman Connie Morella in a remarkable upset. Conservative Republican Helen Bentley and Democrat "Dutch" Ruppersberger are in a close fight to replace Ehrlich in the House.
If the GOP women win early, that might indicate their party will hold the House. If the wonks declare early wins for Van Hollen and / or Ruppersberger, Democrats' hopes to retake the House increase.
Massachusetts: If Democrat Shannon O'Brien beats Republican Romney for governor that could signal a strong Democratic surge. If she loses, it will be in large part because of a Green stalking horse splitting the anti-right wing vote. Democratic Senator John Kerry will win easily.
Michigan: Democrats Senator Carl Levin and candidate for governor Jennifer Granholm should win their races easily. If not, that would give Republicans hope.
New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg should defeat Forrester, but some right wing pundits are predicting an upset. Obviously a loss for Democrats here could imperil their slim Senate majority. The 5th Congressional District is the key race to watch. If Garret loses, the Republicans could lost the House.
Alabama: Republican Sessions will win the Senate race. Riley will win the Governor's race.
Kansas: Republican Pat Roberts will win the Senate race. If not, his party's hopes to win the Senate will evaporate. In a year winning Democratic women, Kathleen Sebelius will take the Governor's race. Democrat Dennis Moore will win another term in Congress. If not, his party's hopes to wrest the House away from Tom DeLay will go up in smoke.
Illinois: Blagojevich will probably win the Governor's race to become the first Democratic governor in the state for a generation. Democratic Senator Durbin should win his Senate race. If well-funded Republican Shimkus loses to Democrat Phelps in the 19th District, his party may lose the House.
Mississippi: Republican Thad Cochran wins another term. Republican Pickering should easily beat Shows, but if the Democrat wins, that could signal unexpected strength for conservative Democrats in Dixie.
Missouri: Senate race projected as too close to call. In an odd wrinkle, the winner becomes the new Senator immediately, because Democrat Carnahan is an interim Senator. Talent, her challenger, has tried to obscure his extreme right wing views and suppress minority voting. If he wins, that bodes well for other dirty trick Republicans.
Oklahoma: Right wing Republican Inhofe wins the Senate race. The Governor's race goes to Largent -- unless third party challenger bites deeply into his base. If it is too close to call Henry has a chance. Of all the long shot candidacies Henry has the best chance of an upset.
Tennessee: If Lamar! is not elected to the US Senate, the GOPs have little chance to win the Senate. Bredesen wins the Governor's race.
Texas: Most likely, the Republicans will sweep the major races -- Perry over Sanchez for Governor and Cornryn over Kirk for Senate. Bush sent Karen Hughes, his top political fixer, to win these races.
If either remain too close to call for any length of time, that would embarrass Bush. If the Democrats win one or both races, that would send a shocking message to Bush from his home state. Latest polls show Kirk pulling even with Bush's boy.
Pennsylvania: Democrat Ed Rendell wins in a landslide. The GOP gerrymandered expertly in hopes of picking up 3 or more House seats, but Republican Gekas will probably lose to Democrat Holden. Republican Gerlach may lose to Democrat Wofford in the 6th CD. Unless Republicans pick up seats here, they may lose the House.
8:30 PM closes the poll in Arkansas. Scandal plagued Republican Tim Hutchinson will probably lose to moderate Democrat Mark Pryor. Republican Governor Huckabee is facing a stronger than expected challenge from Democrat Fischer.
9:00 PM the polls close in New York, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming.
New York: Republican Governor Pataki is leading Democrat McCall and billionaire businessman Thomas Golisano, a third party rival. There is only one competitive congressional race here, and once-safe Republican Felix Grucci, who ran a dishonest radio ad politicizing rape, may lose to Tim Bishop.
Rhode Island: Democrat Myrth York hopes to win the Governor's race against a well-financed Republican, Don Carcieri. Republicans are smearing York, and if they succeed, it may indicate their dirty tricks still work.
Louisiana: Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu will win against three Republican rivals, but must face a run off next month unless she wins at least 50% of the vote. This might leave the Senate's destiny in limbo.
Minnesota: Democrat Mondale will defeat former Democrat, Bush's hand-picked choice Coleman -- or else it will be a dark day for Democrats. The three-way Governor's race is too close to call.
Nebraska: Republicans Johannis and Hagel will win easily.
South Dakota: The GOP will win the Governor's race. The Senate race is among the most hotly contested in the country. The Washington Post reports:
"Bush personally recruited Rep. John Thune (R) to challenge Sen. Tim Johnson (D), and the two have carpet-bombed the state with round-the-clock commercials that began airing early in the year and haven't let up."
Bush is trying to help Thune, however, "Drought has been one issue, with Bush putting Thune in a hole by refusing to come to the state's assistance. Thune has promoted conservative values; Johnson and his allies have attacked Thune on Social Security and education."
The House at-large seat remains too close to call -- to the shock of many. The Post reports: "Democrat Stephanie Herseth, the 31-year-old granddaughter of a former governor [is] a tough challenger who provides a sharp contrast in style and demeanor [to term-limited outgoing Governor William Janklow.] "His experience may give him the edge, but her appeal to younger women makes this a competitive race."
Wisconsin: Democrat Doyle should win the Governorship.
Arizona: Napolitano wins the Governorship. House races in the 1st district too close to call.
Colorado: Ownes wins the Governor's race. Allard and Strickland too close to call, but Strickland eventually wins. Beauprez and Feeley come down to the wire. Musgrave defeats Matsunaka.
Wyoming: Freudenthal vs. Bebout goes down to the wire. If the networks call it for Bebout. Should Bebout not be declared the winner immediately then Freudethal could win. Enzi wins the Senate race. Cubin wins the House race.
10PM closes the polls in Iowa, North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Nevada.
Iowa: Democrats Sen. Harkin and Gov. Vilsack should win. The House races come down to the wire. North Dakota: Pomeroy should win.
Idaho: Larry Craig and Dirk Kempthorne win their races.
Montana: Max Baucus wins. Mike Taylor is beaten easily.
Utah: No real competitive races. Matheson wins the 2nd.
Nevada: No real competitive races. Guinn cruises to re-election.
11 PM closes the polls in California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii.
California: Gray Davis wins another term.
Oregon: Gordon Smith wins. Kuglonski wins the Governor's race.
Washington: no competitive races.
Hawaii: The networks may call it for Linda Lingle. However, if it is too close to call, Hirono may have a shot.
12 AM Polls close in Alaska. Stevens wins his Senate Seat. Ulmer and Murkowski go down to the wire. If Murkowski is not called the winner immediately then Ulmer has a chance and could win this race.
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